Smart money looks at underlying trends that are course specific, tournament specific, time of year specific...
We look at trends based on not just how a player is performing recently (although that's important) but how likely their positive trends are to continue based on the circumstances of the tournament (think a guy has finished well 3 times in the last month but has driven the ball poorly and putted extremely well and now he's headed into a tournament with tighter fairways, more demand on tee shots and a type of green he doesn't historically perform well on)...
We look at out-performance and under-performance compared to the median score before and during the tournament...
We also look at the WHOLE field to find undervalued or overvalued performers vs just the guys everyone knows (some of our best matchups come from here like Patton Kizzire beating Sam Ryder in round 2 of the AT&T Pro-Am)...
And, not to get all secret sauce black box on you, but a huge part of this is having a level of access to players, coaches and insiders so we can flag intel like whether a guy hasn't been feeling well or is trying a new piece of equipment in the tournament or switched coaches and is changing his swing...
Then we compile that data to award a score likelihood for each competitor.
And, from there, it's easy, We can pick winners as well as top 10's and top 20's from our highest probability scorers.
And we can match up high probability scorers vs low probability scorers.